Revisiting the matrix of unknown : unknown

Revisiting unknown : unknown

How are we responding to the fear of systemic risk and what is next?

The matrix of known:unknown has been around since 1955 and is a super tool which helps map our understanding of risk for scenario planning and game theories. It has been updated numerous times and remains a current and useful tool. Whilst it definitely can help us think about “data” and where to focus and allocate limited resources, does it help with our response to COVID19?

Applying the framework to our personal and collective responses, may help us understand where we are up to, in terms of our own understanding to COV19. The axes are, “it is known:unknown to ME” and “it is known:unknown to YOU.”



Starting from the bottom left, a deep fear of the unknown. Sometime in Dec 2019 the majority of the world started to become aware of a new virus. For you and me this was firmly in the quadrant of unknown:unknown. Neither of us had any data on the virus, its effects on humans, the ramifications for the economy or how we should / could respond. A human characteristic, that we cannot evade, is that we try to avoid, ignore or bypass unknown situations. In psychology this is seen as a core animal fear and part of the fear, flight and flight mechanism.

We can now look back and observe consistency in our initial fear response to covid19, with the emergence of conspiracy theories, blame, it will blow over by Easter or “it is just the flu, get over it!” There was some limited data but we could not make sense of it, indeed we often did not want to accept the reality of this sci-fi film scenario playing out in real life. The reality of the systemic fear that has been forced on us is presenting itself in leadership and professionals as “exhaustion.” We have had to process a lot of new data, new scenarios and fundamentally new concepts. At the end of each day we have found it hard to think, we have been more tired; and experiencing a different type of exhaustion.

Right now we can see we are on the journey to uncertainty at which different scenarios can play out. We are starting to see our staff and the public enter into emotional responses based on their own personal experiences and makeup. Some are bulk buying, others are rejecting the lock down, others are too afraid to go out and many are overwhelmed needing leadership and direction. We are heading towards peak emotional response.

Of note and when past initial emotional response and in some instances such as with HIV and other viruses we never get past the unknown:unknown state and live with an acceptable level of fear and rationalise the risk. We stop and live with uncertainty.

From uncertainty we will divide. The next phases we will see as responses are where data, logic, information, analysis, insights and wisdom becomes aligned to personal thinking and this enables us to accept a new normal, there is an acceptable level of facts which I accept as truth. The frustration is that this will create divides and divisions as we all hunker down to our own personal biases and preferences. There will not be two camps, but as many views as there are people, plus 1.

We are still living with the ramifications of 2008 GFC (global financial crisis) so we should not expect a rapid return and maybe be thinking in a 10 year horizon. Therefore and eventually, we will make sense of this systemic change and head off to creating new acceptable compromises where we find a new “business as normal” place. When there we will create new rules and heuristics which make our life easier. Part of the reason we are so tired is that our short-cuts, rules of thumb and heuristics have been taken away. Fundamentally we can achieve so much as individuals and society as we have found ways to avoid thinking and processing. When we have learned to do something, we don’t have to relearn as learning is a high energy requirement, the brain consumes more when learning. We are exhausted as our rules have gone and we are having to learn everything all over again. It is as if we are playing chess and the opponent has decided that their pieces can move differently to the agreed rules and have not told you. We are having to learn new rules as we play each move.

What does this mean?

As we come out of fear and shock we should expect our staff, and ourselves, to enter or be in an emotional response. We need to provide leadership and structure at this time so ensure that this does not become destructive to our staff, society or purpose. This is a new support that we have never had to find or offer and will be critical to being able to find a route to a new normal. We need to hear, listen and accept a wide range of views as we all search for a new acceptable compromise.

We also need to take care of ourselves and keep a check on our level of new exhaustion, this is a processing, learning and thinking exhaustion and not a physical one. There is nothing we can do to process and make sense quicker, it will take time and we have to accept it. The answer does not lie in more data, more conversations and more reading but is an acceptance of all scenarios and that the probability of all outcomes, most of which we don’t like, are equal.